─── independent durability reads on outcome-based deals
An independent, audit-ready read on the durability your deal is priced on.
When an expensive therapy is sold on the promise that its benefit lasts, the trial data is often too thin for the price. Finnegas reads that risk from the public data, returns a calibrated bound you can defend to an actuary, a lender, or a state regulator — and refuses, by name, the commercial trigger no model should price.
Roctavian's warranty priced durability loss at 2% a year. The same public data put the real risk near double — it came in at 17.9%, and the drug was withdrawn in 2026.
A 30-min walkthrough of the method on a deal like yours — the calibrated bound, the honest refusal, and the audit trail behind both.
─── what an independent read gives you
- 01
a bound, not a guess
A calibrated loss bound on the trigger you can defend, with the honest interval shown — not a point estimate dressed up as precision. Calibrated under data-scarcity.
- 02
a named refusal
It tells you which triggers it won't score — commercial uptake, indications outside trained coverage — instead of guessing. The part that makes the rest credible.
- 03
an audit trail
Every figure carries its source and a typed substrate an actuary, a lender, or a state DOI can open and check. No black box.
─── not what you've seen
Not a model picker. Not a workflow chatbot. An independent read on the durability leg of an outcome-based deal — beside your actuarial model, honest about where it won't score.
Pre-seed · no commercial sponsors · methodology frozen at the 2026-05-16 release.
Ahmad Elmowag · ahmad@aseti.co.uk