What was knowable at deal date, what Finnegas would have output from that input, and what actually happened. We price the clinical-durability trigger; we do not claim to predict commercial blow-ups — we refuse those, on the record.
1 calibrated durability hit·1 honest refusal
roctaviandurability calibration hit
biomarin · severe hemophilia A · 4-yr durability warranty
knowable at deal date2%/yr → 7.8% cumulative over 4yr — the manufacturer-informed warranty assumption (ICER 2022)
finnegas output (from that input)4.63%/yr credibility-blended · real-world band 10.8–23.8% by yr4 · ~2.3× the assumption
what actually happenedrealised durability 24/134 ≈ 17.9% resumed prophylaxis by yr4 · product withdrawn, ~$240M write-down
the honest claima retrospective calibration hit on the clinical trigger — not a forward prediction; the commercial collapse sat on an axis we refuse to price
buyer takeawaythe warranty was under-priced ~2.3× on the axis it actually underwrites — the independent, audit-trailed read they lacked
lyfgeniahonest refusal
bluebird · severe sickle cell · ex-vivo lentiviral-HSC
knowable at deal date$175M facility tranched on patient-start / uptake milestones · pivotal VOE-CR 28/32 ≈ 88% · FDA boxed AML/MDS warning
finnegas output (three reads)BANKABLE durability rating · REFUSE the commercial-uptake trigger · NAME the latent safety tail it can't yet calibrate
what actually happeneddurability HELD · uptake collapsed · bluebird taken private at $3.00/share + CVR, Jun 2025 — a commercial, not clinical, failure
the honest claimrefused, not predicted — durability correctly not flagged; the insolvency is a commercial outcome above the ceiling
buyer takeawaya lender pricing this needed all three reads — bankable durability, a refusal on the commercial trigger, the named safety tail — and had an auditable record of none
scope: clinical-durability trigger only · commercial-sales prediction refused (cited ~45–71% forecast-error ceiling) · both cases counterparty-screened — neither issuer nor financier is on the outreach board.